Summary
This report focuses on how marine fisheries are affected by climate change through the changing distribution and productivity of marine organisms around the globe. The report presents projections from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) to estimate medium and long-term potential losses and gains in the capacity of the world’s marine ecosystems to produce fish biomass. The modellers collaborated to compare existing models worldwide and to produce an ensemble of projections, along with their associated uncertainties, under low and high-emission future scenarios. The results reveal projected losses in fish biomass production in most places. Some of the largest projected biomass declines are for countries that substantially rely on protein supply from aquatic foods or are top producers in terms of global marine fisheries production. The report recommends improving the accuracy of climate impact ensemble modelling for marine ecosystems and fisheries, including building capacity through provision of tools and training to enhance capabilities for meeting future policy needs.