Summary
Voluntary sustainability standards (VSS) are stakeholder-derived
principles with measurable and enforceable criteria to promote
sustainable production outcomes. While institutional commitments to use VSS to meet sustainable procurement policies have
grown rapidly over the past decade, we still have relatively little
understanding of the (i) direct environmental benefits of largescale VSS adoption; (ii) potential perverse indirect impacts of
adoption; and (iii) implementation pathways. Here, we illustrate
and address these knowledge gaps using an ecosystem service
modeling and scenario analysis of Bonsucro, the leading VSS for
sugarcane. We find that global compliance with the Bonsucro environmental standards would reduce current sugarcane production area (−24%), net tonnage (−11%), irrigation water use
(−65%), nutrient loading (−34%), and greenhouse gas emissions
from cultivation (−51%). Under a scenario of doubled global sugarcane production, Bonsucro adoption would further limit water
use and greenhouse gas emissions by preventing sugarcane expansion into water-stressed and high-carbon stock ecosystems.
This outcome was achieved via expansion largely on existing agricultural lands. However, displacement of other crops could drive
detrimental impacts from indirect land use. We find that over half
of the potential direct environmental benefits of Bonsucro standards under the doubling scenario could be achieved by targeting
adoption in just 10% of global sugarcane production areas. However, designing policy that generates the most environmentally
beneficial Bonsucro adoption pathway requires a better understanding of the economic and social costs of VSS adoption. Finally,
we suggest research directions to advance sustainable consumption and production. Resource available under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).